In physics, the three body problem describes a system where three celestial bodies exert gravitational force on each other in ways that make their movements essentially impossible to predict.
Excellent framework, David. I never thought of it like this before, but you really do capture the bind the industry finds itself in really well. Hats off to you, sir.
I want to push back on one thing though: I think Force 2 is less stable than you’re treating it. You frame AI hostility as an independent gravitational force, but I’d argue it’s actually a dependent variable, one that’s only a force as long as AI is associated with corner-cutting and slop.
I actually reckon that 85% disapproval number collapses the moment someone ships a game so undeniably good that nobody cares how it was made. The window will shift, overnight, because of one product. Nobody boycotted Pixar for killing hand-drawn animation because Toy Story was clearly a masterpiece, and people stopped griping about Auto-Tune once artists made actually great music with it. The resistance is loud and persistent right up until quality makes it irrelevant.
You ask whether AI hostility will soften like the resistance to F2P, or whether it’s more durable because it’s wrapped up in job displacement and artistic integrity, but I think the answer is neither. It won’t soften gradually, but will shatter all at once the first time a studio uses AI to make something players can’t put down, something that truly couldn’t exist without it.
That completely changes your math. If Force 2 is temporary and event-driven rather than structural, then the real question isn’t how to navigate around AI hostility, but how to position oneself to move fast when the dam breaks.
Which, honestly, might be the most important Lagrange point.
Something has to give. The market can’t pressure available dev budgets towards zero and also demand that devs avoid the cutting edge tools of their day.
I think the author is missing a big reason users don't like AI - because they associate it with soulless slop. Stable point 4 especially - I think AI is already ruining UGC in lots of areas by allowing users to fill it with clones and imitations, which are left to real humans to trawl through.
Excellent framework, David. I never thought of it like this before, but you really do capture the bind the industry finds itself in really well. Hats off to you, sir.
I want to push back on one thing though: I think Force 2 is less stable than you’re treating it. You frame AI hostility as an independent gravitational force, but I’d argue it’s actually a dependent variable, one that’s only a force as long as AI is associated with corner-cutting and slop.
I actually reckon that 85% disapproval number collapses the moment someone ships a game so undeniably good that nobody cares how it was made. The window will shift, overnight, because of one product. Nobody boycotted Pixar for killing hand-drawn animation because Toy Story was clearly a masterpiece, and people stopped griping about Auto-Tune once artists made actually great music with it. The resistance is loud and persistent right up until quality makes it irrelevant.
You ask whether AI hostility will soften like the resistance to F2P, or whether it’s more durable because it’s wrapped up in job displacement and artistic integrity, but I think the answer is neither. It won’t soften gradually, but will shatter all at once the first time a studio uses AI to make something players can’t put down, something that truly couldn’t exist without it.
That completely changes your math. If Force 2 is temporary and event-driven rather than structural, then the real question isn’t how to navigate around AI hostility, but how to position oneself to move fast when the dam breaks.
Which, honestly, might be the most important Lagrange point.
Something has to give. The market can’t pressure available dev budgets towards zero and also demand that devs avoid the cutting edge tools of their day.
I think the author is missing a big reason users don't like AI - because they associate it with soulless slop. Stable point 4 especially - I think AI is already ruining UGC in lots of areas by allowing users to fill it with clones and imitations, which are left to real humans to trawl through.
Excellent, insightful & well written piece
Very interesting read, thanks!